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Up for Trek

Posted Sat Jun 6, 2009, 3:11 PM ET

Time for a dip in the summer movie pool. My splashing around has so far been limited to Star Trek and Up, but both, in their own ways, are the best of the summer lot so far (as of early June). Yea, I know, it's not even summer yet. But don't tell Hollywood. In any case, I can hardly wait for the Blu-rays of both of these films, sure to be coming to your local video store in the fall.

I saw Trek twice. The first was in digital, at Mann Village in Westwood. The second was on film, at the Arclight in Hollywood. The Village was built in 1930 as part of the now defunct Fox chain (the imposing and distinctive tower that rises from it still carries a Fox logo); it's a beautifully preserved single-screen theater. It also offers (in my opinion) the best overall technical presentation in the LA area. The Arclight has film projection facilities second to none (it also has at least six digital-capable screens, including the Cinerama Dome). While the Village's film capabilities are every bit as good, it has gone almost exclusively digital in the past year or so.

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Conventional Wisdom, Unconventional Results

Posted Thu Apr 23, 2009, 4:28 PM ET

In the past, I've never actually tried using an ordinary wall as a screen for a video projector. Never really had to. Conventional wisdom states that a good screen is an equal partner with the projector in producing a great image. Or nearly equal, that is, if you're a projector manufacturer and not a screen maker!

But recently I was in the process of breaking in an Epson PowerLite Home Cinema 6500UB projector for an upcoming review in the print edition of Home Theater. Projection lamps tend to be a work in progress until they settle in, and I like to put as close to 100 hours on them as possible before getting serious. Instead of tying up my home theater space to do this, however, I placed the projector on a table in a smaller, adjoining room (a room often used for flat panel reviewing), fired the image onto the wall, and let 'er rip. This setup wasn't designed for serious viewing, much less serious evaluation, so I wasn't expecting much.

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What Size Screen?...How Far Away?

Posted Sun Mar 29, 2009, 11:21 AM ET

"How big is the screen?"

"120-inches."

"Diagonal or wide?"

When I ask the last question at a trade show demonstration of a projector and screen setup, crickets often sing. If an answer is given before the chorus, it's nearly always, "diagonal." Diagonal is, after all, a bigger, more impressive number.

For years there was no confusion on this issue. When screens were 4:3 (remember those?) nobody talked in terms of the screen width. It was always diagonal. But when 4:3 started to mingle with 16:9, all bets were off.

But no sooner had 4:3 screens faded into TV Land than anamorphic projection popped up. It's all over the place at shows, now there's a new source of confusion. Suppose you just want to know how far you should sit from your screen for the best immersion and the fewest visible artifacts? Does this depend on both the size and shape of the screen?

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Lights Out at Kuro

Posted Thu Feb 12, 2009, 4:55 PM ET

The video world woke up last Friday to the news reports that Pioneer Electronics, long a leader in consumer video display technology, was getting out of the video display business. At first, the reports did not come from Pioneer itself, but rather from news agencies (first in Japan, later overseas) that put two and two together and concluded that they really did equal four.

Finally today, Thursday February 12, 2009, Pioneer Japan confirmed the news. They are definitely exiting the television business.

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Getting It Right

Posted Tue Dec 30, 2008, 1:53 PM ET

You know who you are. You're an experienced Ultimate AV reader with friends who just bought a new flat panel HDTV for the holidays. They've had it delivered and set up by Crazy Zeke's TV and Refrigerator Superstore.

Or perhaps you are, indeed, that friend yourself. You just got into this whole home theater business, have been following our guidance, and bought that new Vizasonic TV for the family just in time for the high culture of the American Idol audition weeks and the gladiatorial combat of the Super Bowl.

But something isn't right. Your friend (or you) is puzzled. The set's high definition picture doesn't look so good. An HDTV should come with a warning that some assembly is required—even if it comes out of the box in one piece.

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All I Want For Christmas

Posted Mon Nov 24, 2008, 4:20 PM ET

A small but vocal segment of the video business, and of video enthusiasts, believes that HD on a disc—that is, Blu-ray—is merely a stopgap. Soon, they are certain, we will all get our HD movie fix via Internet downloads.

I admit to being prejudiced toward physical, packaged media. I collect things, chief among them music and movies. I want my favorites on the shelf to watch or listen to now, whenever I feel like it. It's good to know they are always available, and no studio whim, de-listing of a given title, or failure of an Internet service can deny them to me once I've bought them.

In our use it and toss it culture, however, not everyone feels that way. Most folks rent their movies, and have little desire to keep then around to watch again. Are HD downloads the wave of the future, and how close are we close to getting them today?

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Black and Blu

Posted Wed Oct 8, 2008, 3:24 PM ET

In a recent e-mail, an old friend and audio reviewer asked about Blu-ray players. I tried to steer him away (successfully, I hope) from what he thought was a good deal on an new, unused first generation Sony Blu-ray player. The seller had apparently almost convinced him that this was some sort of undiscovered gem, akin (though in a different application) to the early, tank-like SACD players held in high regard by some audiophiles.

The argument is often made that manufacturers pour everything they have into the first generation of players for the launch of a new format, regardless of price. This shows-off the technology, but the high cost of the players limits sales. Later players are cheapened in search of a wider market, sometimes at a sacrifice in quality. Sounds convincing, but it isn't so in this case. It's no dig on Sony to state that the first generation of stand-alone Blu-ray players from all manufacturers had issues, mostly related to functionality rather than performance. In fact, the early player that has best withstood the test of time in its functionality is Sony's own PlayStation3, which remains the champ in several important areas, including fast load times.

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Celebrating CEDIA

Posted Mon Sep 1, 2008, 3:10 PM ET

Last week we had fireworks and speeches in Denver, as 84,000 screaming fans jammed Invesco Field to celebrate the upcoming CEDIA Expo. It was the biggest kickoff CEDIA has had since Bose sued them for use of the term "Lifestyle."

We missed that Home Theater For All rally, but we'll be at the real event all this week. CEDIA blog coverage will begin here on Ultimate AV and at our sister publication, Home Theater beginning on Wednesday.

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Direct to Blu-ray?

Posted Mon Jul 28, 2008, 1:17 PM ET

Living as I do in a suburb of LA, it's hard to avoid movie news. The local rag, the Los Angeles Times, is awash in it. Its theater listings take up an entire section of the paper, which on Friday and Sunday can feature huge, double-page ads for major releases. So if a movie opens to big notices and reviews, good or bad, it's hard to avoid hearing about it around here.

Which is why I wonder how I missed the releases of sure-fire hits such as Starship Troupers 3: Marauder, Doomsday, Step Up 2: The Streets, CJ7 and Never Back Down. OK, to be fair, I did see trailers on television for Doomsday, and Never Back Down was reviewed on, Ebert and What's His Name At the Movies? (soon to be At the Movies With What's His Name and Who's That?).

Some of these titles may have seen very limited release, with no publicity, but others might belong to a new class of video release: Direct-to-Blu-ray.

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Posted Mon Jul 28, 2008, 1:13 PM ET

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Posted Mon Jul 28, 2008, 12:47 PM ET

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Posted Mon Jul 28, 2008, 12:39 PM ET

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Ride the Blu-ray Bandwagon?

Posted Tue Jul 1, 2008, 4:07 PM ET

A recent article on the Electronic House website offered three reasons to avoid jumping onto the Blu-ray bandwagon—at least for now. One of the arguments—that Blu-ray quality is still inconsistent—read as follows:

Most movies made over the last 60 years were not filmed with HD formats in mind. It’s possible to re-process a film into HD resolution, and the studios are doing so with many movies. However, it’s a manual process, and the results for older or less popular films are mixed. So, before you run out and buy a player, read some unbiased reviews for the titles you plan to re-purchase. Also, keep track of which of your favorite TV shows were recorded in HD, as there’s little benefit to buying the Blu-ray version of a show shot in standard-def!

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Small Treasures

Posted Thu Jun 5, 2008, 11:19 PM ET

I recently spent a weekend cleaning up my home office, the retreat where I write much of my deathless prose. I hadn't rummaged through some of my files for several years, but had to make room for the piles of new stuff that have managed to build up to the point where I couldn't find things. This sorting process invariably takes longer than you plan, as you find things that require instant action (as they did two years ago) and others that demand to be re-read and enjoyed again.

OK, so I'm bad at throwing things out. I found tax records older than some IRS trainees. But buried in the mess I found some long-forgotten gems. One of them was a small collection of audio-related cartoons drawn by the late Charles Rodriguez, who livened up the pages of Stereo Review (now Sound and Vision) from its founding until he retired in the 1980s (I believe—I don't have the exact date). I scanned the best one, above, which I suspect may date from as far back as the 1960s. The presence of an older salesman and the fact that salesman and customer are wearing suits and ties is something of a giveaway, given the rarity of both today.

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A Study in Contrasts

Posted Sun May 11, 2008, 2:48 PM ET

Contrast: The ratio between the brightest part of the picture and the darkest.

You might not find that precise definition in your Webster's, but it's the one that applies to our little corner of the world. It's also one of the most important characteristics of a video image.

But there are a number of ways to measure contrast—more precisely contrast ratio—and that's where the problems begin. One method is so-called ANSI contrast, which measures the contrast between peak white and total video black when both are present on the screen at the same time, usually from a standard checkerboard pattern of black and white squares. The presence of white and black together is the toughest test for contrast ratio, since the white areas inevitably compromise the black.

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Tech on Trek

Posted Thu Apr 10, 2008, 6:16 PM ET

I can't say I'm as big a Star Trek fan as some. I love the stories and characters, but I'm not into the minutiae. I don't know which deck sickbay is on, couldn't tell you the date the first Enterprise was launched (actually it was Stardate 1814, if you can believe Wikipedia), and don't know a word of Klingon.

I'm also far different than most fans in that my favorite Star Trek series is Voyager (the only Trek to really put its crew totally on their own), and I actually, sort of, enjoyed Enterprise (which, incidentally, looks so good on its HDNet HD widescreen reruns that even the nay-sayers might enjoy it). I also feel that the best Trek film after First Contact was Galaxy Quest. What, you didn't think that was a Trek film? Oh ye of little imagination. In any event, such radical opinions would get me tossed out of any self-respecting Trek convention, unless I went disguised as a Tribble.

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Split and Switch

Posted Fri Mar 21, 2008, 9:40 PM ET

You're got two displays; perhaps a plasma on the wall for day-to-day viewing and a projection screen that drops down in front of it for serious movie watching. Or you want to feed HDMI video to a small screen on your equipment rack as a monitor. Or…whatever. Up to now, it's been difficult to find an affordable device that will split an HDMI source in two. There are a number of such products on the market from companies like Gefen, Key Digital, and PureLink, but they tend to be expensive solutions to a relatively basic problem, often providing more flexibility than you need.

A few new high-end A/V receivers and pre-pros offer dual HDMI outputs, but often they can't output the signal from both HDMI ports at the same time. If you need to do this, they're not a solution—even apart from the issue of having to buy a new, expensive receiver you might not need.

Into the breach charges Accell, a company that was new to me last fall when I heard about its one-in, two-out UltraAV HDMI (1.2a) Splitter ($119.99). It's a small device: bigger than a postage stamp, smaller than a CD case. The single input and two outputs are located on three of its four sides. An LED for each output illuminates when a video display is connected to it. Power comes from a small wall-wart transformer. It has no controls of any kind.

It works well—or at least most of the time. Of the several displays I tried it with, only the Panasonic TH-58PX750U plasma sometimes refused to display an image. I suspect this was an HDMI handshake issue. HDMI has been both good-cop and bad-cop in its performance with various displays, sources, and switchers (with the good-cop behavior prevalent in my experience), so I would never claim any product such as this will unequivocally work with any and all sources and displays. But there's a better than even chance that it will.

I did discover one particularly bizarre example in which the Accell splitter actually went beyond its intended function to overcome HDMI's sometimes-fickle nature. I was reviewing a NuVision Lucidium 52" LCD for Home Theater magazine. For some as yet unexplained reason, the set refused to play HDMI sound on its internal audio system from two different Blu-ray players. But when I put the Accell splitter in the circuit, there was sound! I'm not claiming that the splitter might be a cure for HDMI blues in addition to its splitter chores (nor does Accell), but you never know.

One thing that the Accell splitter's HDMI 1.2a design will not do is pass the new high-resolution audio formats in bitstream form, specifically Dolby TrueHD and DTS HD Master Audio. Or at least it would not do so with my Integra DTC-9.8 pre-pro. For that reason, I don't recommend positioning it upstream of an A/V receiver or pre-pro. But that's an unlikely location for a splitter; you're most apt to use it downstream, between the receiver and the displays and after the HDMI has already passed through the receiver and the sound retrieved.

With respect to picture quality, the Accell was transparent on the displays I tried it with, including a Pioneer PRO-150FD plasma and a JVC RS-1 projector together with a 78" wide Stewart Studiotek 130 screen. I saw no loss of detail and no color problems. The black and white levels were undisturbed.

The only downside here is the splitter's physical configuration. While small and inconspicuous by itself, the HDMI cables on three of its sides do make for a somewhat ungainly overall package. But that's unlikely to matter since you're probably going to hide it behind your equipment rack.

If all you need is a simple two-in, one-out switcher, Accell has you covered there as well with its UltraAV HDMI (1.3a) Switch ($99.99). Unlike the larger splitter, the switcher is self-powered by the input signal—no wall-wart is required. There's an LED for each input, and while there are no controls on the unit itself, it comes with a small (easy to use, easy to loose) two-button remote.

There's nothing much more to say about the switcher. It performs every bit as well as the splitter. In fact, I even cascaded the two together to form a relatively inexpensive two-in, two-out switcher-splitter—but remember that the combination will share the splitter's limitations with bitstream high-resolution audio. The combination is also rather clunky, what with HDMI cables sprouting out every which way. And the switcher can't be easily hidden if you want it to respond to the IR remote. But it works, and the price—for either device or both—is definitely right.

Accell Corporation (www.accellcables.com) also offers other larger, more conventionally configured, and more complex and expensive HDMI switcher/splitters.

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After You've Gone

Posted Fri Mar 7, 2008, 1:08 AM ET

So now we have a single HD disc format. Hallelujah. No more excuses for sitting on the fence. No more "my upconverted DVDs look almost like high definition" claptrap. The clouds will part, angelic choirs will sing, and…oops, wrong blog.

But not everything is just hunky-dory. (Sorry, I just watched the beautiful new Disney Blu-ray release of Crimson Tide and couldn't help myself.) Now that the war is over, it's time for the Blu-ray group to clean house.

Neither HD format had the patent on trouble-free operation, but HD DVD came closer to it than Blu-ray. This was largely because one company, Toshiba, built all of the hardware and could establish and enforce strict controls. All HD DVD machines played all discs from the get-go, and if they didn't, Toshiba was quick to issue firmware updates to correct the situation. The only missing pieces on some early models were the ability to play back all the advanced audio formats and 24 fps operation. And those oversights were corrected in either additional firmware updates or new players, which hit the market with striking regularity; a year and a half into the format Toshiba was on its third generation of HD DVD hardware and, in my opinion, was poised to launch a fourth very soon when, as they say, events intervened.

HD DVD players weren't perfect, but they were a dream compared to the issues that have afflicted Blu-ray. Only the PlayStation 3 escaped serious criticism for its overall functionality, since it was ready on day one and played virtually all discs flawlessly. But even the PS3 lacked some desirable features. It still doesn't offer bitstream out for Dolby TrueHD, and won't play back DTS HD Master Audio in any form.

But there don't appear to be any old or new BDs that the PS3 won't play. You can't say that for most stand-alone BD players. The big roadblocks appear to be BD's aggressive copy protection and BD-Java, or BD-J, issues. The copy protection is here to stay, but BD-J's three different, so-called Profiles have caused a lot of heartburn. We have Profile 1.0, Profile 1.1, and Profile 2.0. Profile 1.0 won't play all of the special features on some new discs, Profile 1.1 will, but not those features that require Internet connectivity. Profile 2.0 does it all, or should, but only the PS3 currently has Profile 2.0 capability.

While those 1.0 players will, in theory, play the movies on 1.1 and 2.0 discs and only hiccup on the advanced features, in some cases the movies themselves have refused to play properly some 1.0 players. Firmware updates have usually fixed the problems, but left in their wake a lot of grumpy Blu-ray owners. And we've seen updates that have fixed one problem while causing a new one.

Now it's time for the Blu-ray group to lay down the law. All future players should be Profile 2.0, or at least 2.0-capable with the addition of outboard storage in the form of a flash drive or memory card. All players must be built to the same strict standards, and software manufacturers must be held to those standards. If a disc won't play on a fully compliant player, no more firmware updates should be issued to make do; the disc itself must be remastered to comply. Standards have to begin somewhere.

Firmware updates (which are a nuisance for the more mass-market users the format must attract to succeed) should be limited to significant feature upgrades. Even then, the upgrade should be sent to all registered owners on a simple, playable disc. Insert disc, push play, update installs with no further actions required. The first company that does this will earn a lot of PR brownie points. Not everyone wants to, or can, fiddle around with an Internet connection in the home theater room. Some potential BD customers don't have a high-speed Internet connection, or a home network. Some don't even have home computers—though obviously this doesn't include those reading this blog!)

In addition, more than a few HDMI problems still need to be worked out. For example, I've used a number of player-display combinations that constantly break HDMI lock at the transitions between studio logos, trailers, and menus at the beginning of a Blu-ray disc. Even though the situation (usually) stabilizes by the time the main menu arrives, this constant flashing on and off is annoying, and a reminder that HDMI is not yet a perfectly seamless interface, 1.3 or not. As if we didn't know that already.

And please, studios, if you want Blu-ray to be perceived as the premium format it is, stop cluttering up the front-ends of your releases. I love trailers, but can do without a dozen of them prior to the main menu, particularly when they can only be skipped one at a time. Worse, we get the same trailers over and over on every disc issued within a two-month period (or longer). I love every Disney-Pixar film, and the Wall•e trailer was a hoot the first time I saw it. But if I hear "Waaleee" once more I'm going to find me a robot so I can strangle it. Give me the trailers, but put them in the menu as a feature. Kudos to the studios, such as Warner Brothers, however, whose BDs are mastered to get to the movie as soon as possible, sometimes with little more than the FBI logo and the menu.

And when will Blu-ray mandate that its resume feature, which lets you stop then restart play from where you left off, be required on all BDs. Some studios lock it out. In fact, the discs with the most trailers and promos up-front, or those that take the longest to load, seem to be the worst offenders here. If you stop the disc, intentionally or otherwise, they make you start again at the very beginning and slosh through the mush all over again.

Speaking of load times, while most enthusiasts will put up with the 2-3 minute loading times some discs require, the general public will not, particularly if they then have to sit through trailers for another 12 minutes (or skip them one at a time) to get to the movie. If the PS3 can load quickly and sell at competitive price, why can't stand-alone players? If it takes a Cell processor (the brains of the PS3) or something equivalent to provide this for all players, do it.

Finally, we come to price. The elephant in the room. We want a packaged high definition format to succeed, and that now means Blu-ray. There will always be premium players for those that demand them. But until the price of the average BD player comes down to a level that the typical consumer will consider (my best guess here is $200-$250), Blue-ray will remain a niche product while DVD continues to prosper for the "good enough" crowd.

Blu-ray software is still too expensive as well. If the DVD of a movie lists for $25, the BD should be $30, tops, not $35 or $40. Early adopters and enthusiasts may pay that sort of premium, but only for a title they really want. J6P won't even consider it. Fox recently dropped the prices on a few of its $40 BDs to between $30 (for older catalog releases) and $35. It's a start.

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Cliché Alert-The Clock Has Stopped Ticking

Posted Tue Feb 19, 2008, 3:19 PM ET

The ship has sailed. The hero is riding off into the sunset as the fat lady sings her closing aria. She sees the handwriting on the wall for her final curtain. The end is near.

I wrote those words yesterday. Today, the end is here.

Early this past weekend, rumors flew that Toshiba was contemplating pulling the plug on the HD DVD format. And it's now official. Toshiba has thrown in the towel. It has announced that it will no longer promote the HD DVD format. It will no longer build new players, though it has promised to provide service support for players already in the hands of consumers. I would not, however, expect Toshiba to devote resources developing new firmware updates for existing machines.

We've watched the pressure mounting on HD DVD over the past weeks. First, Warner Brothers announced that they would no longer release discs in the format, starting in May. Then, in short order, retailers Best Buy, Wal-Mart, Target, and (in the U.K.) Woolworth dropped or cut back drastically on their support, Netflix and Blockbuster went mainly Blu-ray. New fire-sale, desperation prices were announced for HD DVD players. And Sonic Solutions, a major developer of mastering software for both formats, dropped its support for HD DVD as well. The Warner decision had triggered a tsunami.

HD DVD was already falling well behind in sales when Warner let the dogs out. It reportedly lagged 3:1 in player sales in the U.S., 10:1 in Europe, and 100:1 in Japan. To be fair, those figures likely include PS3 sales and don't take into account the sales of high def player/recorders, which are more popular in Japan than play-only machines. (Apart from computer drives, HD disc recorders remain unavailable here in the U.S. due to pirating paranoia.)

So why am I about to pull the trigger on a new Toshiba HD DVD player? Well, for starters, the price on our review sample is definitely right. But most important, I have over 100 HD DVD titles that I'd like to continue enjoying (including a number of test discs), not to mention using them as familiar source material for video reviews. I need a player that will continue to fully support them. My first-generation HD-A1 lacks important features I need, such as support for 1080p/60 and 1080p/24, but it will continue to soldier on as a backup.

The war should have been over months ago. Toshiba was never able to generate a broad-based support for its format. Most observers commented on this, but focused on HD DVD's narrower studio support, even though the number of released titles is roughly the same for both formats. That's largely because Warner and Universal have dominated HD DVD releases with their massive film libraries. Finding great titles among those releases did require separating a little wheat from a lot of chaff, but that charge could be leveled at both formats.

HD DVD has, however, offered up some genuine hits: the Complete Matrix Trilogy (a Warner Brothers release, but still unavailable on Blu-ray), Seabiscuit, Heroes: Season One, all three Bourne films, Star Trek: Season One (the original series), Peter Jackson's King Kong, and Transformers. It will be a while before the dust settles and these and other HD-DVD exclusive titles are re-released on Blu-ray.

But software support was only one side of the equation. I commented over a year ago that the Achilles heal of the HD DVD format was lack of hardware support. Toshiba was the only manufacturer producing significant numbers of HD DVD players (and re-badged players for other companies).

The one-supplier paradigm made for rapid resolution of the sort of compatibility glitches that have plagued Blu-ray. But one hardware supplier does not a format make. If, for example, Panasonic decided to stop making Blu-ray players tomorrow, it would barely be a passing shower on Blu-ray's parade. But now that Toshiba has stopped building players, the HD DVD jig is up.

This decision would appear to free Paramount/Dreamworks and Universal, the remaining major studios supporting HD DVD exclusively, from any contractual commitments to continue support for the format. I would expect Blu-ray announcements from both of those companies in the coming days or weeks. But it will take more weeks, or even months, before we see a significant number of titles from them. Paramount will probably come first; they have recent experience with Blu-ray. Universal is starting from scratch (there have been reports that its HD DVD masters are incompatible with Blu-ray and may have to be redone), but I would be surprised if it didn't already have plans in place.

With just one HD disc format remaining, once the dust of consumer confusion clears from the format war the market potential for packaged high definition media will take a major step forward. You can take that to the bank.

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Coming Soon?

Posted Wed Jan 30, 2008, 12:56 PM ET

It's already a month into 2008, but never too late to make predictions for the coming year or so—predictions of things that probably won't happen in the way we expect. If anything is certain, it's the uncertainty of the future. The volatile world of consumer electronics is no exception.

The Digital Transition Before the 2008 elections candidates will avoid discussing the coming 2009 analog over-the-air TV shutdown like the plague.

The government will issue $40 discount coupons to everyone for analog converter boxes, even to consumers who get their programming from cable and satellite and don't need them. Following distribution of the coupons, the price of the converter boxes will increase from $60 to $100.

After the transition, television news outlets will run feature stories on how to hook up your digital converter box. Those who need the help won’t be able to receive the broadcasts.

Music on Blu-ray A small, innovative music company will decide to release a few multichannel music-only titles on Blu-ray in either 24-bit/96kHz PCM or Dolby TrueHD.

Audiophiles will immediately insist on reissue of the recordings with 2-channel tracks.

Digital Amplifiers The weight savings possible with class D amplifiers will prove irresistible to receiver manufacturers, who have largely avoided them so far because they require a major redesign of their circuitry. (And you thought that they redesigned their amplifier stages with every yearly model change!) At the high end they will add thicker, heavier sheet metal to retain perceived value with customers who equate lightweight with cheap.

Rear Projection Rear projection sets will still be available from one or two manufacturers, but they will not promote them much beyond mid-year. The only exception may be laser projection, currently being pursued among major manufacturers only by Mitsubishi, which began researching laser technology long before flat panels caught fire (metaphorically speaking). Whether or not lasers become viable for consumer displays remains an open question. Another SED story-in-the-making, perhaps?

Front Projection The possible demise of RPTVs could generate a few ripples in the front projector market, since the slowing demand for imaging chips might impact their cost and production. I would not expect any major changes, but manufacturers might be a little less inclined to major price reductions.

On the other hand, lower projector prices might lead to increased demand. When consumers become aware that they can get a decent projector and screen for not much more than the price of a good flat panel, and a much larger image in the bargain, a significant number might be tempted to join the big-screen brigade.

For that to happen, however, retailers will have to improve the state of in-store projector demonstrations, which is currently abysmal. I’ve seen great projectors set up so poorly that I wouldn’t watch a movie on them that way if you paid me. Well maybe I could grit my teeth for two hours for a $500 gift certificate.

Flat Panels The prices will continue to drop, though at a slower rate than over the past couple of years. There must be a floor on them somewhere, so savings to the consumer will increasingly come in the form of a bigger set for the same price.

LCD sales will continue to dominate, but plasma will retain a small but loyal following. If this year’s CES was any indication, look for thinner sets in both flavors to start appearing this fall. The question is, where are they going to hide the drive electronics in that inch-thick chassis?

Don’t look for breakthroughs in new technology. OLED appears to be the next up-and-comer, and offers huge advantages in thinness, potential picture quality (great black levels) and energy savings. But it’s more than a year off—if ever—in sizes and prices that could allow it to take off as a consumer product.

Watch for ominous grumbling about the energy consumption of LCD and, in particular, plasma designs from the same group that has decided to kill off the incandescent light bulb. New mileage—er—energy efficiency standards might sound great, but they could seriously degrade picture quality before technology catches up again.

The Format War The song is over, but the melody lingers on. Toshiba’s recent decision to spend several million dollars advertising on the Super Bowl may indicate an admirable feistiness, but also a disregard for the consumer. It can only prolong the death throes of HD DVD, which will continue to keep many average consumers confused and on the sidelines.

Blu-ray is spending its advertising dollars wisely, concentrating on cable channels which cater to more likely buyers. I find it amusing that Universal, which still supports HD DVD, is carrying advertising for Blu-ray on Universal HD.

The jury is out on how these changes will affect the prices of Blu-ray hardware and software. The biggest upside move Blu-ray can make, in my opinion, will be to lower the retail process of BDs by at least $5. They are still too high to generate a wider market appeal—particularly since their biggest competition will soon come from standard definition DVDs of the same films and TV series selling for far less.

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