Who knows what the real numbers for Transformers or even Spidey 3 are. There's alot of spin going on. Based on the Neilsen Videoscan numbers it looks like TF on HD-DVD sold maybe 115K. Sony claims 130K for Spidey 3 which does not include the giveaway in the PS3 40GB or apparently the Trilogy. Thats what I've read. I fully expected TF to be big mainly because there is very little out there to buy on HD-DVD of any consequence. BD still won the TF week 51-49 based on Neilsen due to the BOGO sale of Disney and Sony titles and came in at 71-29 during Spidey release week. Ratatouille, Cars, and Pixar Shorts are going to be very big and the differential should be even bigger. Now this week with Shrek 3 coming out, BD has countered with another Disney/Sony BOGO sale! very interesting battlefield tactics.

I've seen the raw Video Scan numbers for the week ending on 11/4 with my own eyeballs and TF outsold Spider-Man 3 handily according to what I saw.

Another interesting facet is that Sony has said that sequels tend to perform poorer and and poorer as they are released on home video compared to the original movie.

So, we're now going to see if that holds up for Shrek the Third and the third Bourne movie vs. the third in the Pirates of the Caribbean saga.

Battle of the thirds!

And yes, while Blu-ray has won those sales weeks overall, it was just barely and nothing like the 2:1 we've seen all year. I thought Spidey 3 would have had more crossover with with the PS3 crowd, actually.

Claude- BOGO is a really cool acronym, BTW. I'm going to incorporate that into my virtual vernacular, with your permission of course!

It is all very interesting, but while BluRay does have a lot of exclusive studio support, it also has the support of a lot of CE manufacturers. If Toshiba's only way to to win this "war" is to seel HD players at a loss, it hardly encourages other manufacturers to make the players too.

Well, if where I live is any indication, Ratatouille will be a HUGE seller this week. My local Sams sold out of all of their copies, which is the first time I have seen them sell out of a title. Luckily, I was able to grab the last one! Cars is selling well also, but not as well as The Rat.

As to the sales numbers of Spidey 3 vs. Transformers, I have seen the same numbers that Shane has and if the actual numbers were leaked, then some people would be scratching their heads as to whether to believe the studio's press release (Paramount & Sony) or to believe the "retail numbers". The $64,000 question is, which are accurate?

Shane - BOGO is nothing I invented. Use as you please!

Here is a link to the 11/4 magazine and numbers: http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom111107/index.php

DVDs rise was not the price of player but the similar cost in content to VHS. The average consumer looked at the format change as better quality with a 10% premium in price. Since most Blu-Ray or HD DVD disks cost quite a bit more than regular DVD, coupled with the "format war", the avearge consumer will not comit until the content price dips quite a bit. The player cost just makes it that much easier to enter the format, once studios and manufactures decide to get there act together.

Claude,

Shane and I have seen the actual disc sales, not the percentages presented by the magazine. As Shane stated, doing an apples to apples comparison of the numbers between Transformers and Spiderman 3, Transformers sold a lot more copies in the opening week, a lot more. But in reality, it doesn't matter a hill of beans. Blu-ray is selling more software week in and week out, with and without BOGO sales. HD DVD took its best shot with Transformers and their biggest hope is to get as many players into as many homes this holiday season. In the end though, this is still Blu-ray's game to lose.

Al- Obviously Toshiba cannot count on other manufacturers making any players any time soon. The Chinese apparently can't even make a player for under $199 yet.

What's rather fascinating to me lately though is that the PS3 gets a pass on some of these fronts. None of the other Blu-ray manufacturers can make a player that's as cheap, fast, or advanced as the PS3, which Sony is selling cheaply and at a loss to gain market share.

Sony has sold over 2 million PS3s sold in the US, but reports are that one of the Sony players (can't remember which one right now) is the top selling standalone player at 100,000 units.

So, Pioneer and Samsung and the other Blu-ray manufacturers might be selling Blu-ray players, and not losing money per unit, but they apparently aren't selling a lot of players either.

Sony bet the Blu farm on the PS3. Sony has lost millions on the PS3, and it has underperformed in BOTH segments (gaming and Home Theater). Toshiba may lose money on the $99 HD DVD players, but nowhere near the loses suffered by Sony with the PS3. None of that matters because it is a guess as to how this will affect the HDM war in the next couple of years. I submit that Toshiba is using the cheap players as a trojan horse to an installed base, just as the PS3 was used as such. Which strategy will prevail? Media prices does matter, and Disney's BOGO is a good counter to HD DVD player price cuts. But I don't think we'll see media prices coming down till there's one HDM format left standing. To me, both HD DVD and Blu Ray are looking more like the Laserdisc format. Except that both players and media are cheaper. This, IMHO, is the big win for HDM early adopters. But not so good for the long term outlook for one unified HDM format.

David - I agree wholeheartedly with your comments. It really doesn't matter whether Spidey 3 beat TF or vice versa, Blu-Ray is still selling more media week in and out. Like Shane, I can't wait to see the numbers on Rat/Cars/Pixar Shorts. Getting back to Spidey, I passed on the single disc and bought the Trilogy. Does anyone know how this box set was counted?

What is neat to look at is engadget HD is doing a poll today to see which format people pick. They also have a spot where people have both formats but lean to another. In that case at the time of this post 12.8% (854) lean red, while 10.2%(681) lean blue. 4.9%(329) support them equally. 30.5% (2033) blue only, 26% (1733) hd dvd only, while 15.6% (1042) are still dvd. Counting the number of people that have hd dvd (with people in the both cat) hd has 3597 to blue ray's 3897. Not a huge install base lead for blue ray vs hd dvd. Granted this is just a same sample of the public but it does give us a reflection of what people are buying. Just think it's cool how hd dvd is the choice for people that have both systems. Probally has something to do with extra features and working right with out downloading patchs is my beat.

Justin - Poles like that are completley random. As to Blu-Ray needing "patches", all the hardware from both sides require firmware updates from time to time including HD-DVD. HD-DVD is not immune.

Claude,

Spiderman 3 sold about 30% more copies than Spiderman. I can't give out any specifics as to the actual numbers, but you know the hoopla surrounding the Transformers number reported by Paramount and the supposed "actual" number that was leaked? A smart guy could figure out what the sales of Spiderman 3 were by applying similar math. ;)

Well it's the random part of a poll that helps to give it a true picture of what is going on. No one could ever poll everyone in the world. Now if you wanted to discount the poll you should say maybe most of the people that go to that poll are pro hd dvd or blueray. Yes both systems have patches but so far the hd dvd patch has not been the same as a blue ray patch. I don't think anyone has bought a hd dvd movie and found they couldn't watch it with out a patch (maybe they needed an update to get to the extra online features). Blue ray has put out patchs because if you didn't have it you could not watch the movie. So no it's no immune and maybe the day will come for hd dvd to have a big major patch that makes people mad, but for now blue ray is the one having to make patchs to watch movies (if they can even bring your old player update to watch it (haven't some old blue ray players been left behind while 1st gen hd dvd players are still fully playing all hd dvd has to offer?)).

Justin - There have been some newer films that have required firmware updates for some players including Samsung and LG in order to play the movie. This was poor coordination between the SW and HW makers. I believe these updates were made quickly, still not good. I was immune in that I own a PS3 and have never had a problem playing a movie. I can't comment on HD-DVD players and possible problems, maybe someone else can. David - Thanks!

Well, like I have said here before, we have to wait until the dust clears after the holidays to see the emerging winner in this war. I think this holiday season will show the real winner in this war, which in my opinion as players prices stand is going to be HD DVD, due to Blue Ray players STILL been priced way to high for the target consumer, "average joe", who is the one that will decide this war by buying in mass into one format or the other. Gaming stations, such as X-box and Play Stations, etc all they have done is give an incorrect image of the state of the war, but if you look at the "Big Picture", they are not the real important numbers to look at, that is the massive user base of regular DVD player owners out there, still sitting on the sidelines of this format war,lately thought they seem to be going for HD DVD players due to the price cuts, will that mark the begining of the end for Blue Ray...? Well, lets the dust clear after the holiday sales and lets see the # of stand alone

Ivan brings up an outstanding point that I think has been neglected too long, and that ties into what Luis is saying.

I think price will has an impact for sure, but I'm shocked that software prices have been somewhat neglected. BOGO (thanks Claude!) is great, but one of the things that drove DVD to wild success is that you can walk into Best Buy every Tuesday and pick up every new release for $15. $25-$30 is enough to get a lot of people to rent and wait for the remastered version that will come out in a year and a half and show up in the $7.99 and up kiosk near the cash register.

Shane - Prices at Best Buy have been slowly going down in the last few weeks not including sales. I've noticed many $29.99 BD's now selling for $24.99 when they come out. Meet the Robinson's sold at BB for $22.49. There seems to be a downward trend which is good. If you are smart or s survivor like me, you can easily price-match to stores such as Wal-mart and especially Target which has Amazon prices. I have never had a problem with this in store at BB. In the long run hi-def content needs to drop below $20 so that folks don't think twice about buying. As to the old "price will win and that's HD-DVD" song, I simply don't believe that. Price is important and Blu-Ray players WILL come down even further very soon...I expect $200 players in the next six months if not sooner. Content is very important and I simply don't see the "average Joe" buying a cheap HD-DVD player, bringing it home and his wife and kids asking, "did you buy Ratatouille? Cars?...Spidey?.

Comparing Transformers to Spider-man 3 is not really accurate. As has been said, Transformers is a first movie, and was generally well received. Even in my family, everyone preferred buying Transformers over Spider-man 3. One successful title can cause a blip (on either side) on the numbers - especially given the relatively low number of sales compared to DVD. What would have been more instructive is if both Transformers and Spider-man 3 were availbale in both formats. On this basis, the only studio that can be looked at for a more accurate representation of sales between formats is Warner. Harry Potter will be interesting. Stephen

I was at Sam's yesterday and the Shrek III DVD was $18.79 and the HD DVD was $27.99. If there was only a $5 difference between the two, I think you would see greater adoption, but $9 is quite a stretch.

Stephen,

I agree, it isn't really a fair comparison. A better comparison will be when we see what Ratatouille's sales were the first week, which I expect to be huge!

Claude, "Average Joe" is buying Ratatouille" and "Spidey" in regular DVD format! They are not going to go just for the high def movie if they can not affort the high def player to beging with... ..and they are STILL sitting it out waiting until they can affort a cheaper priced high definition player, any of the 2 formats, whoever makes that happen first. Lately it seem they have been encouraged to jump into the HD DVD band wagon due to the cheap prices. I personally hate this format war, I think there is a lot of pride crap on both camps going on, but the reality of it is that clearly millions of people don't want to get ripped of into buying a hig def player that does basically the same things as the another format players do for TWICE the price. I don't care how much money anyone makes, or if the can affort a expensive player or not, no one like to get ripped off! And as long as they can see "Spidey" in their nice upscaler DVD player, watching it in

Luis - The hidef battle for the next-gen format is very small right now. The average Joe really could care less about it at the moment even if they know it exists at all. it's being fought by the audio-videophiles and early adopters of the world. aka - us! Most folks are spending their money on HDTV's now and may show interest in a better disc format after their wallets recover. I'm not going to go into the merits of HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray and which is better, because that has been talked to death, but I will say that Blu-Ray is not "ripping people off" with their prices. Toshiba is actually selling at an artificial price including the Firesale of their A2 which was collecting dust on shelves. Blu-Ray player prices have dropped at a more reasonable yet still accelerated rate due to this competition. Don't forget, it too several years for DVD to hit around $400 per affordable player. I know, because that's when I bought in!

The A2 was never "collecting dust on shelves" even before the clearance sale at Wal-mart. This is a ridiculous assetion (I guess by comparison, those BD stand-alones were flying off shelves?). The A2 was cleared out to make way for the new model (the HD-A3).

Cliff- If reports are correct, there is some basis t the dust gathering. Assuming that the numbers that have been bandied about here and there are correct, Toshiba had apparently sold around 200,000 HD DVD players total before the sale. If they sold 90,000 on that fateful day, that suggests supply seriously beyond apparent demand.

But hey, it's no secret that the PS3 is pretty easy to come by with previous models sitting on the shelves while the newer cheaper ones come out.

Interesting that Sony has dropped prices on those so many times without any of the BD fanboys crying fire sale.

The PS3 is easy to come by and I think that's a good thing. There is nothing worse to me then having to hunt for a product. The prices have dropped as well as the configuration as Sony tries to find the comfortable price point for most buyers.

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