UltimateAVmag.com: This Way to the Cliff!

I don't get it. I read anecdotal stories on the Internet about people who think their upconverting DVD player is high-def. I find folks who order high-def cable to go along with their new flat screen TVs perfectly happy to view that "high-def" over s-video, per the cable company installer's wishes. So I guess J6P (Joe Six Pack) is a bit, well, ignorant, in the original intent of the word. No offense.

But a week after Warner cut the rope and set HD DVD adrift, the public is proving there' are no flies on them (that means they're not brain dead – my readers are multi-generational so I have to explain everything). Sales of HD DVD discs have practically evaporated and wow, that 2-to-1 BD to HD DVD disc sales ratio of just last December is starting to sound like the good old days to Toshiba!

Prices are rock bottom these days for any Toshiba player (as low as $99), if you can find a retailer willing to sell them. Woolworth's in the U.K. has announced they'll stop selling the players in March. Woolworths! I mean, they made their reputation selling crap and even THEY won't sell HD DVD!

Too bad Toshiba can't figure out a way to convince J6P (see above) they need an HD DVD player to watch the Superbowl. That could be 100,000 units sold right there!

But while we don't know for a fact that the Giants are going to pick up their ball and go home defeated next Sunday (well, we do know, but we're pretending we don't), we do know what's happened in the HD DVD vs Blu-ray debacle. It's over. C'est fini! Acabou Cara! I mean, don't let the door hit you in the ass and all that jazz.

Part II – A New Renaissance

I have a confession to make. I used to buy a lot of conventional DVDs. At some point in 2006, I slowed way down. I mean WAY down. The weekly trips to Costco to pick up a couple of new movies on DVDuesday became a thing of the past. I even bought a new projector, thinking, hell, that'll perk me up, but in the end, I used it more to watch HD programming like HerosPrisonBreak24LostLasVegasTheUnit than HD discs. Oh sure, I'd slap on an HD DVD for a review, but when it was over, back to I Love Lucy on the flat screen.

And I apparently wasn't the only one. Sales of standard DVDs are in the toilet. The market needs a shot in the arm, and hopefully, with the FUD factor gone (fear, uncertainty and doubt), things should start to look up.

Well, you know, provided the economy doesn't tank.

The war is over. It's time to rebuild. I'm actually very excited about being able to commit to something. Maybe retailers could start committing as well. Hey Costco, how about carrying more than one high-def disc at a time?

Maybe I'll try and find that old bookmark I had lying around here somewhere to www.dvdpricesearch.com and do me a little Blu-ray shopping.

I hate making predictions (like the one I secretly made where HD DVD wins the format war), but I think 2008 is going to be the beginning of a new era in disc sales, one where combined Blu-ray and DVD sales easily surpass, at least in gross revenue, DVD sales at their summit.

Let's all hope I'm right this time.

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Reader Comments

Posted Mon Jan28, 2008, 9:57 PM — By Greg

No offense, but let's hope your prediction about the Giants is as prescient as your secret prediction that HD-DVD would win...

Posted Tue Jan29, 2008, 12:51 AM — By David Vaughn

Fred,

Great blog as usual. As for the Giants...I give them a fighting chance because they have heart, but the Patriots is the best football team I have seen in my 38 years of life, with the last 30 of those years a die hard NFL fan. The Steelers were great in the 70's, the 49er's in the 80's, and I hate to say it, but the Cowboys in the 90's. But this decade belongs to the Patriots and I think we will see HISTORY on Sunday when they go 19-0.

David

Posted Tue Jan29, 2008, 12:52 AM — By David Vaughn

Fred,

Great blog as usual. As for the Giants...I give them a fighting chance because they have heart, but the Patriots are (yes...I do know proper English) the best football team I have seen in my 38 years of life, with the last 30 of those years a die hard NFL fan. The Steelers were great in the 70's, the 49er's in the 80's, and I hate to say it, but the Cowboys in the 90's. But this decade belongs to the Patriots and I think we will see HISTORY on Sunday when they go 19-0.

David

Posted Tue Jan29, 2008, 1:23 PM — By Mahmood Batasi

Hey Fred I am from the UK and i laughed out loud when i read your blog about Woolworths. I am recovering at home from spinal surgery at present and you made me laugh with what you wrote about 'Woolies' I am still smiling while i write this. Your absolutely right about them selling crap as well. Costco in the UK don't even sell HD discs or projectors but we do get plasma/lcd screens. Thanks for the smile on my face!

Posted Tue Jan29, 2008, 4:05 PM — By Bruce in CO

Great blog once again. Please contribute more often. The combination of spot-on insight and entertainment is appreciated. The format war maybe over, but the battle still rages. There is little reason for the Sony camp to fix the problems with the current generation of BluRay players, such as interactivity, etc. or to lower prices to a reasonable level. I hope that UAV keeps up the pressure on the technical side and J6P keeps far enough away for some downward price pressure.

Posted Tue Jan29, 2008, 5:02 PM — By Fred

Greg - confession time. I'm not really a big football fan. In fact, I only watch one game a year, the Superbowl, and that's just for the commercials. In fact, I'm not even going to be anywhere I can WATCH the game Sunday night, so I'm recording it on my DVR. And then (and this is going to piss you off even more than my picking the Pats), I plan on fast forwarding through the game to get to the commercials.

Yeah, I know. Pathetic.

Posted Tue Jan29, 2008, 5:08 PM — By Fred

Dave,

The worst part (aside from public acknowledgment of my heretofore undeclared apathy to the game of football) is that my local fried chicken joint is having a three-different-kinds-of-wings special for the game that sounded great, but I won't be around to enjoy it.

Posted Tue Jan29, 2008, 5:16 PM — By Fred

Mahmood, I sure hope you didn't bust a stitch laughing! I'm worth nothing financially if that's your angle.

I haven't seen a "Woolies" in the States in years! My personal favorite "five and dime store" as we called them then, was G.C.Murphy's which, sadly, I don't think ever made it to your side of the pond. Great hamburgers and banana splits when I was a kid, and chairs that spun around until your mother conked you one on the head. Yes, they sold junk too, but I'd take a G.C.Murphy's over a "Dollar-Store" any day of the week.

Cheer up and I hope you do get well soon. Thanks for reading!

Posted Tue Jan29, 2008, 5:21 PM — By Fred

Bruce, thanks for the kind words! Sorry for the long gaps between blogs - POST CES burn-out! Plus I was working ever so hard on an actual review that you'll definitely want to read if you're in the market for a - well, I guess you'll have to a wait a little longer. . .

Posted Wed Jan30, 2008, 8:32 PM — By Bruce in CO

Patience may not be one of my virtues, but it is necessary in the HT world. I look forward to reading about......

Posted Thu Jan31, 2008, 9:15 AM — By Duane in TX

I ask myself everytime I go to the store why people would buy so many movies, I hardly ever watch a movie more than once. So why not just do Netflix, I get my movies in a few days and send them back when I'm done. I think people are just coming to realize they aren't watching all 500 of those $20 DVD's they bought, and saying they will save that money for something else. Besides, about the time you get your "collection", the format is obsolete, remember VHS? LaserDisc?

Posted Thu Jan31, 2008, 11:30 AM — By Bruce in CO

Duane, my wife and I talk about Netflix all the time, considering our sizable DVD collection. What it has come down to for us is that our viewing habits would make Netflix very inconvenient. We watch a movie one weekend, and if we like it, go through the extras (making of, special effects, etc.) at some point in the future, and then end-up watching the movie again. We don't do this with every movie, but we do with most - we're selective prior to purchase. Our daughters will watch two or three movies 20 times each switching between them for several weeks. Since we buy 15 - 20 movies per year, the cost isn't much more than $15/month with Netflix and we can watch any movie at anytime. And we do go back into our collection regularly to watch an oldie. We may end up adding Netflix to the mix to catch movies that we're not interested in owning, but would like to watch. Also, even when BluRay becomes the dominant format, DVDs will still be watchable while we selectively upgrade movies.

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